Prediction of Flick Density in the Rainy and Dry Seasons Based on Health Services, Behavior, Environmental Conditions, and Breeding Place in Banjarbaru City Using Partial Least Square

Abstract

Isnawati, Bambang W. Otok

Background: Dengue fever is a serious public health threat and becomes an economic burden throughout the tropics. The indicator of success in eradicating dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is related to the presence of mosquito larvae, namely the density of larvae. Climate change from the rainy season to the dry season has led to the proliferation of disease vectors such as the Aedes mosquito. Environmental factors play a very big role in addition to behavior, health services, and heredity. Other factors that are also at risk of infection and the growing development of dengue fever are population growth that does not have a specific pattern, unplanned urbanization factors.
Materials and Methods: The sample in this study was a housewife selected in twelve endemic villages in Banjarbaru city. This study examined the larva density model with a partial least square approach, so that by knowing the influential factors in the decrease in the density of flicks is expected to be used as a reference for prevention and control of DHF events cases.
Results: The results showed that the prediction model of flick density in the rainy season and dry season with Partial Least Square (PLS) approach is a fit and highly accurate model based on criteria R2 and Q2. The density model of flicks in the rainy season can be explained by behavioral health services, environmental conditions, and Breeding Place by 87.7%, while in the dry season it is 80.8%. The decrease in larva density in the rainy season is heavily influenced by environmental conditions, behavior and health services, while in the dry season is influenced by breeding place / site. The rainy season prefers fogging (0.714) and counseling (0.795) indicators on the health service factor, while in the dry season the dominant indicators are larvasidation (0.847) and Periodic Larva Check (PLC) (0.729). Furthermore, behavioral factors in the rainy season prioritize knowledge indicators (0.716), while during the dry season the dominant indicators are attitude (0.899) and action (0.890). Environmental conditions in the rainy season pay more attention to water pH (0.588), while in the dry season the indicators considered are water temperature (0.991) and water type (0.774). In the rainy season, the breeding place factor pays more attention to the type of container (0.950), while in the dry season the dominant indicators are container material (0.970), container color (0.959), and container cover (0.924).
Conclusion: The breateau index and house index indicators are dominant in forming larva density. The breeding place is a dominant factor in directly affecting the density of larvae in the dry season. Container material affects the growth of microorganisms that feed larvae, especially in containers that are rarely drained. The magnitude of the influence of breeding places in the dry season is more due to the infrequent draining of water for supply, so that larvae reproduction is more frequent.