Prediction of Relative Risk ?SUSPECT? and ?CONFIRM? COVID-19 Using Meta-Analysis Approach

Abstract

Dya Sustrami, Bambang Widjanarko Otok, Ah Yusuf, Ninik Ambar Sari, Ceria Nurhayati.

Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease caused by a new type of virus called Severa Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). The number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia continues to increase every day, followed by an increasing number of deaths. During a pandemic like this, it is important for a country to control the rate of increase in Covid-19 patients and the rate of patient mortality from Covid-19 disease. As a real first step in determining who is affected by Covid-19 and not, this is what is important, and then there will be appropriate handling of each of the positive and negative ones. If the treatment is right, then the handling will be good and have an impact on a lower risk of death.
Materials and Methods: This study uses secondary data per district of Sidoarjo Regency, which is obtained from https://covid19.sidoarjokab.go.id/#angka as of 13/12/2020 at 17.00 WIB. The data obtained are data on the number of “Suspect” and “Confirm” COVID-19, for each district in Sidoarjo Regency. The method of analysis in this research is meta-analysis for binary data (“Suspect” or “Confirm”) which will calculate the effect size in the form of a risk ratio, risk difference, and odds ratio. Furthermore, to determine the prediction of pessimistic, actual and optimistic risks for the "Suspect" and "Confirm" groups who experienced the event (died).
Results: Relative risk groups can be grouped into 3 parts. Group 1 consists of a relative risk of less than 0.225, namely Sidoarjo district (0.051), Jabon district (0.036), Krembung district (0.069), Tulangan district (0.123), and Krian district (0.028). Group 2 consists of relative risks from 0.225 to 0.567, namely Buduran district (0.258), Candi district (0.414), Porong district (0.470), Taman district (0.317), Sedati district (0.274), Waru district (0.252), and Tarik district (0.301). Group 3 consists of risks above 0.567, namely Gedangan district (0.645), Tanggulangin district (1.353), Wonoayu district (0.748), Prambon district (0.790), Sukodono district (1.070), and Balongbendo district (0.728). The results of the forest plot in Relative Risk (log scale) Group 1, hereinafter referred to as the green zone, are in Sidoarjo district , Buduran district , Jabon district , Taman district , Krembung district , Tulangan district , Krian district , Sedati district , Waru district , and Tarik district . Group 2, hereinafter referred to as the Yellow Zone, is in the Candi subdistrict, the Gedangan subdistrict, the Porong subdistrict, the Wonoayu district, the Prambon subdistrict, and the Balongbendo district. Group 3, hereinafter referred to as the Orange Zone, is in the Tanggulangin district and Sukodono district .
Conclusion: The "Confirm" group had a greater risk of dying than the "Suspect" group. The districts in Sidoarjo Regency with the highest risk of dying in confirmed cases are Tanggulangin district, Wonoayu district, Prambon district, Sukodono district. While the lowest relative risk of dying was in Krian district, Jabon district, Krembung district and Sidoarjo district.